NCEP Modeling Synergy MeetingHighlights: November 26, 2007
This meeting was led by Michael Brennanand attended by Joey Carr, John Ward, Keith Brill, Mark Iredell, Mary Hart, GeoffDiMego, Ed Danaher, Bill Bua, Zoltan Toth, Hendrik Tolman, and Christine Magee. Steve Weiss ofSPC, Steven Silberberg of AWC and Mike Fiorino of TPCattended by remote teleconference.
1. NCO
JohnWard listed several upcoming implementations scheduled prior to the CCSmoratorium, which will be in effect from 18 December through 8 January.
<![if !supportLists]>·<![endif]>Implementationof the new multi-grid wave model for the NOAA Wavewatch III is scheduled for 27November
<![if !supportLists]>·<![endif]>A minor GSIupgrade is scheduled for 4 December
<![if !supportLists]>·<![endif]>A NAEFS upgradeis scheduled for 4 December
<![if !supportLists]>·<![endif]>A SREF upgradeis scheduled for 11 December
<![if !supportLists]>·<![endif]>A ClimateForecast System (CFS) upgrade is schedule for 18 December
Moredetails on these implementations can be found below in the respective EMCbranch sections. A detailed list of all upcoming upgrades and implementationscan be found here.
2. NOTES FROM EMC
2a.Global Climate and Weather Modeling Branch
MarkIredell detailed the following upcoming global branch implementations:
- A minor upgrade to the GSI scheduled for 4 December will incorporate format changes for JMA winds and SBUV-8 ozone data. No evaluation period will be undertaken for this change.
- The upgrade to the CFS/GODAS (Global Ocean Data Assimilation System) scheduled for 18 December will introduce two new members and use 1-day old initial conditions instead of 8-day old initial conditions for the model run. This will improve model performance in the short range (3-6 weeks). Also, deep water data assimilation in the GODAS will be improved.
Testingis underway on the next GFS/GSI implementation with code delivery expectedearly in 2008. This upgrade will include a first-order time interpolation (astep toward 4DVAR) and a radiation physics upgrade. Scores so far have beenmarginally better with the changes, and a potential implementation is scheduledfor April.
2b.Mesoscale Modeling Branch
GeoffDiMego reported that JIFs have been approved for thecoming
- An increase in the domain size by 18% (in the north, west, and east directions)
- An upgrade in the i,j,k WRF-NMM code
- Introduction of gravity-wave drag and mountain blocking
- A unified LSM (NOAH)
- GSI upgrade to increase the resolution of GOES field-of-view data and the inclusion of some mesonet data
- A slight modification of the positive definite advection scheme
Apackage of changes for the hi-res window (HRW) post-processing is beingprepared to address the need for hourly output, processing of GEMPAK fileshourly as the output becomes available, and the computation of updraft helicity. SPC has also requested that the status of the HRWbe included on the NCO model status page: (http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/prodstat_new/).
Thereinstatement of Fire Weather runs in 2008, originally requested by OCWWS ispotentially on hold due to an inability to get the output into AWIPS OB9. Shortterm progress on these runs will depend on feedback from the regions onalternate ways to distribute the model output.
2c.Global Ensemble Prediction System
Zoltan Toth noted that the upcoming NAEFS implementation scheduledfor 4 December was approved and is on schedule. The upgrade will include theproduction of combined NCEP and CMC ensemble twice daily at 00 and 12 UTC. TheNAEFS output will consist of 35 bias-corrected parameters. Once CMC beginsrunning their ensemble four times per day, the NAEFS output frequency willincrease accordingly. This upgrade will also include:
<![if !supportLists]>·<![endif]>A downscalingvector for 2-m temperature, 10-m wind (u and v components) and surface pressurethe CONUS on the 5-km NDFD grid.
<![if !supportLists]>·<![endif]>Merged GFS andensemble bias-corrected output, resulting in more weight being placed on theoperational GFS during the first three days of the forecast period when itperforms best. After three days, theensemble will be weighted more heavily.
<![if !supportLists]>·<![endif]>Output of theensemble mean, the 10th, 50th (median), and 90thpercentile probabilities of the ensemble, the mode, the spread, and climateanomalies compared to NCEP/NCAR reanalysis.
2d.
TheSREF upgrade scheduled for 11 December will include bias corrected output andan increase in the size of the RSM domain. After the implementation, SREFproducts in AWIPS will eventually transition to the bias corrected products.
Zoltan Toth commented that an upgrade for the SREF similar to theimpending NAEFS implementation will be under development in the next 12–18months.
2e.Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch
HendrikTolman reported that the implementation of the Multi-Grid Wave Model is set for27 November. After the implementation, parallel runs will continue with anextension of the model grid to the North Pole so that the grid will beavailable in AWIPS 8.3 to address needs of
Asmall change will be made to the HYCOM post processing so that NODC canproperly archive all the model output.
Asmall upgrade to the RTOFS is planned to address the separation of the GulfStream from
Upgrades to the wave model ensemble scheduled for implementation in June 2008include:
- An increase from 10 to 20 members
- Increase in lead time to 7-8 days
- Initial condition perturbations for swell
- Bias corrected winds for oceanic forcing
Workis also underway to sync the NCEP wave ensemble forecast system with that ofFNMOC.
3. FEEDBACK FROM OPERATIONAL CENTERS
SPC/AWC
BothSteve Weiss and Steven Silberberg suggested that a more standard set ofproducts be made available for all parallel evaluations in the future. JohnWard said this issue will be discussed at the NCEP Production Review meeting inearly December.
4. The next Synergy Meeting will be heldMonday, 31 December 2007, at 12:00 pm EST in Room 209 at EMC, with remoteconference capability.
